The critical role of assumptions in population projections : The case of Belgium

Abstract

Population projections serve as a decision-making tool or as a tool to help contribute to discussions on the future of our societies. These projections are based on a series of choices made by the modeller about the projection methodology and the future trends in the population growth components (fertility, mortality and migration). To use these projections wisely, users should be aware of the impact of these choices on the results of a population projection. This article highlights the crucial role of the assumptions made on the future trends of the population growth components on the projection results, using population projections for Belgium published by national and international institutions.